By Prof. Bekeh Ukelina
A nation that does not learn from its history is bound to repeat the mistakes of the past. Today, every true advocate of democracy in Africa should be alarmed by the political trajectory of Nigeria.
As the self-proclaimed “largest democracy in Africa,” we are witnessing a disturbing trend that threatens this democracy. Under the leadership of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) has been welcoming a tsunami of mass defections of governors, senators, and other elected representatives crossing the carpet in droves.
The APC party line and the response of the Presidency are predictable: they argue that the Nigerian constitution guarantees freedom of association. They claim the door is open to all. But let’s be honest with ourselves! These defections are not born out of ideological conviction but are induced by powerful push and pull factors that have nothing to do with service to the people.
We all know the unspoken rule of current Nigerian politics: defect, and your past is buried. As one prominent APC member famously remarked, joining the party is akin to a spiritual cleansing where all your “sins” (in this instance, corruption cases) are forgiven. For others, the motivation is strictly survival. In a system where government institutions including INEC and the judiciary seem increasingly tilted to predetermine “electoral” (or rather, selectoral) outcomes, defecting to the APC is viewed as the only insurance policy for a second term.
Let’s not ignore the chaos within the major opposition parties such as the PDP and the Labor party. When you drill down to the bottom of those internal party crises, you will often find the fingerprints of the ruling party, instigating discord to fracture any viable alternative.
Many have long hailed Tinubu as a “master tactician,” but looking at this strategy, I am doubtful of the claim. If he were truly a visionary strategist, he would be discouraging these high-profile defections and focusing on building the APC from the bottom up. Instead, the APC has become a party of the political elite, disconnected from the streets and rural areas.
It reminds me of the old strategy used by European Christian missionaries in Africa. They believed that if they converted the King, he would force all his subjects to join the religion with him. The APC leaders are applying this same archaic logic: target the governors, and assume they will force their cabinets and states to decamp with them. But just as that missionary strategy eventually failed to capture the hearts of the people, the APC’s strategy is failing where it counts.
At the grassroots, the APC remains deeply unpopular. Forget the rented crowds and the people showing up at rallies hoping for “stomach infrastructure.” In my interactions with everyday Nigerians at the grassroots level, I have rarely, if ever, encountered anyone who genuinely loves the APC or believes their life is better under this government. My almost 90 year old dad who is apolitical recently told me he has never seen the country this bad.
I can only caution the APC to remember the story of Nigeria’s Second Republic and the shenanigans of the National Party of Nigeria (NPN). Tinubu and the APC stalwarts are old enough to remember exactly what happened. The NPN government played this same game. They induced opposition members to defect, bloated their ranks, and pushed Nigeria to the verge of a one-party state. The result? The 1983 elections were so heavily rigged and contested that the resulting instability paved the way for the military, specifically General Buhari to take over the government.
Given how volatile and divided Nigeria is presently, Tinubu has a sacred responsibility to protect Nigeria’s democracy, not dismantle it for short-term gain. Even General Babangida, a military dictator, was wise enough to understand the necessity of balance, giving us two political parties to ensure competitive elections. President Tinubu must choose his legacy carefully. Rather than encouraging these defections to secure “block votes,” he should focus on governance. If he is as confident in his policies as he claims, he should allow Nigerians to decide his fate at the voting booths, not in backroom deals with defecting governors.
Tinubu cannot sacrifice democracy just to remain in power. We have walked this road before, and we know exactly where it leads.
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